Energy-Related Annual Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Carbon dioxide is the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have been rising at about 0.6% annually in recent years, and is likely to increase. Consequently by the middle of the 21st century, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere could be double their pre-industrialization level.

In the IEO2008 reference case, world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow by an annual average of 1.7% from 2005 to 2030:

Year	billion metric tons (Bmt)
2005	28.1
2015	34.3
2030	42.3

World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2005 - 2030

From 2004 to 2005,
Non-OECD - 6.6%; OECD - <1%.

Currently, non-OECD emissions exceed that from the OECD countries, and the difference is growing

From 2005 to 2030
Non-OECD emissions (2.5%) is five times as projected for the OECD countries (0.5%).

In 2005: non-OECD > OECD by 7%
In 2030: non-OECD > OECD by 72%
Projections are policies dependent.

Average Annual Growth in Carbon Dioxide Emissions in OECD Countries (2005 - 2030)

Projected overall average of less than 0.5%:
2005 - 13.6 Bmt
2015 - 14.4 Bmt
2030 - 15.5 Bmt for OECD countries

Mexico has highest rate of 2.1%, with much of its growth expected to come from energy-intensive industries.
All others excluding Mexico: <1.5%
Japan’s to decrease by 0.2%
Europe - increase of 0.4% is projected.
(Source: EIA)

China's Carbon Dioxide Emissions on a Global Basis:

The highest annual growth rate among the non-OECD countries is from China, at 3.3% from 2005 to 2030, reflecting the country’s continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels, especially coal. China's emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to exceed U.S. emissions by almost 15% in 2010 and by 75% in 2030.

From liquid fuels, China has the highest projected rate of 3.5%, due to increase demand from the transportation and industrial sectors.

From natural gas combustion, China's emissions is projected to have the highest growth, averaging 5.5% annually; however, amount is only 0.1 Bmt in 2005, and 0.4 Bmt in 2030, less than 5% of the world total.

From coal, China alone is responsible for 28% of the world's coal related carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions are projected to grow by an average of 3.2% annually, from 4.3 billion metric tons in 2005 to 9.6 billion metric tons (51% of the world total) in 2030.

Average Annual Growth in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Non-OECD Countries, 2005 - 2030

Average of 2.5% is projected, with
China - highest of 3.3%.China is to exceed U.S. by almost 15% in 2010 and by 75% in 2030.

Russia - lowest of 0.9%, expected to expand its reliance on natural gas and nuclear power.
(Source: EIA )

Although the United States is not bound by the Kyoto Protocol targets, it has set its own reduction ratification through cap and trade mechanism. This could have manifested in the 14% projection reduction from 2007 to 2008. In the IEO2007 reference case, U.S. emissions were projected to grow by an average of 1.1% per year from 2005 to 2030. In the IEO2008 reference case, the projected annual growth rate is reduced to 0.5% over the same period.

World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type (1990 - 2030)

Liquid fuels - global average 1.2%, (2005 - 2030)
OECD - 0.3%, Non-OECD 2.2%
China highest with 3.5%.due to increase demand from the transportation and industrial sectors.
US > China by 34% in 2030 with 2.8 Bmt emissions.

Gas - global 1.7% to 8.7 Bmt (2005 - 2030)
OECD 1%, Non-OECD 2.4%, China 5.5%,
US - 0.1%; the projected level of 1.2 Bmt in 2030 is triple the projection for China.

Coal - global 2.0% 2005 - 11.4 Bmt, 2030 - 18.8 Bmt
2030 Non-OECD > OECD by 2.5 times due to increase in coal use projected for China and India.

The relative contributions of different fossil fuels to total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions have changed over time.

World Emissions by Fuel	World Total
	1990	2005	2030
Liquids and other petroleum	42%	39%	35%
Natural gas	19%	20%	20 - 21% (8.7 Bmt)
Coal	39%	41% (11.4 Bmt)	44% (18.8 Bmt)

China and India's Coal Dependence

1990	13%
2005	23%
2030	34%

Together, China and India account for 79% of the projected increase in the world’s coal-related carbon dioxide emissions from 2005 to 2030. For China alone, coal-related emissions are projected to grow by an average of 3.2% annually, from 4.3 Bmt in 2005 to 9.6 Bmt (51% of the world total) in 2030. India’s carbon dioxide emissions from coal combustion are projected to total 1.4 Bmt in 2030, accounting for more than 7% of the world total.

Emissions per Capita

Carbon dioxide emissions per capita in the OECD economies are significantly higher (about fourfold in 2005) than in the non-OECD economies, in part because of their higher levels of income and fossil fuel use per capita.

Comparison of Emissions per Capita		Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Capita Non-OECD (1990 - 2030)

Economic growth is the most significant factor underlying the projections for growth in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the mid-term. Other factors that can affect carbon dioxide emissions include population density (densely populated countries use less energy per capita for transportation), population growth, economic growth, oil price variations, income, fossil fuel use per capita and climate (affecting usage of heating and cooling facilities).

Epc (million tons per year)	2005	2030
Russia	12	17
India	1.0	1.5
Africa	1.0	1.0
US	20	19
Canada	19	20
Mexico	4	5

Source: EIA.doe.gov

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