Extremes of Climate

Many scientists have warned that environmental changes are likely to be speeding up, climate extremes and disasters will come faster than expected. The early 2009 bushfires in the US, and the concurrent incidences of drought and flood in Australia in early 2009, in China in mid 2009 are concrete manifestations of climate extremes.

There are strong implications from scientific climate models that global warming due to increased greenhouse gas emissions has been associated with the more frequent occurrence of extreme climate events; and that humankind is the cause of global warming.

Statistics show that five times more major meteorological calamities occurred in the 1990s than in the 1950s. The world's annual economic loss due to these disasters also soared from 4 billion U.S. dollars in the 1960s up to 29 billion U.S. dollars today.
(IPCC AR42007)

Further aggravation of global warming will lead to a more frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climatic events, thus posing great threat to the sustainable socio-economic development of the world.

Projections made in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC on
Change in extreme events since 1950:

An increase in the number of heat waves and warm days/nights and a decrease in the number of cold days/nights.

Widespread drying over much of Northern Hemisphere land areas. This is associated with initial precipitation decrease related to ENSO, land and sea surface warming

An increase in the number of heavy snow and heavy rain leading to snow disaster and flooding respectively, but not everywhere.

An increase in the maximum and minimum temperatures.

Less number of frost days associated with the average warming in most mid-latitude regions.

A substantial increase in intensity and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes. Changes are masked by large natural variability. The El Nino Southern Oscillation greatly affects the location and activity of tropical storms around the world. Activity is strongly correlated with higher tropical sea surface temperatures.

75% increase in the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes since 1970 with decrease in the total number of cyclones and total number of cyclone days

An above-normal increase of hurricanes in the North Atlantic with 2005 as the record breaking year.

		Hurricanes and Cyclones In 1933, 21 Atlantic tropical storms prevailed, record only to be exceeded in 2005 with an all time high of 28 storms. Hurricane Katrina, one of the deadliest hurricanes in the history of US, hit the Gulf of Mexico Coast and New Orleans with devastating effect. More then 1,800 people lost there lives, and more then $81 billion dollars in damages occurred...... From late July to mid-September 2008, 6 consecutive severe storms and hurricanes have battered the United States

		Flood Devastation Bangladesh has been plagued by floods throughout history. Major flooding recorded in recent years occurred in: 1987, 1988, and 1998, 2004; the most devastating one occurred in November 2007. A man climbed a ladder to reach a drainage sluice station in South China's Guangdong Province June 10, 2007. It is the worst flood to threaten 15 towns of the county in 50 years. [Chinadaily news 2007]

		Snow Wreckage A total of 18.6 million hectares of forests, about one-tenth of China's forest resources, have been damaged by the unprecedented snow wreckage in at least five decades, with forests, bamboo and seedlings in some parts of the country seriously destroyed. (Photo: Snowy weather damages 18.6-mln-hectare forest )

		Drought and Heat Waves ....has shown that human-induced global warming was a key factor in the severity of the 2002 drought..... Indonesia Forest Fires with underground peat fires: Consequential haze covered the neighboring countries of Singapore, Malaysia, Sumatra, Sabah and Sarawak, creating health hazards for months. Malaysia declared a "haze emergency"..., and 5 fire engines were sent to neighboring Indonesia to tackle the fires......more

Australia Gripped by Flooding in the North and a Heatwave in the South
(BBC News Feb 07 2009)

Eastern Australia is facing two extreme weather conditions, with intense heat threatening further fires in the south, and heavy rain causing floodwaters to rise in the north. Both the high temperatures and the downpours are a common feature of Australian summers, but scientists from The Bureau of Meteorology have stated that climate change could be enhancing the extreme weather conditions. In Melbourne, the temperature on Saturday is forecast to reach 44^oC (111F), 18^o above average for the time of year. This heat, combined with dry winds from the inland is leading to some of the worst wildfire conditions in 25 years.

China Grappling with Extreme Summer Weather: Chinadaily/2009-07/03

Some parts of China have had too much rain, and others too little this summer:
Global warming is partly to blame for weather extremes in China in 2009, causing more than 700 deaths from flooding and leaving millions of others without water. Such extremes are likely to get more intense and more frequent in the future, according to head of the China Meteorological Administration's Department of Forecasting Services and Disaster Mitigation.

In the southern provinces of Hunan and Jiangxi, about 2 million people are experiencing drought and heat waves, with temperatures reaching 40^oC, which have also strained power grids. Some cities reported the highest temperature in 50 years. The drought is threatening 1.05 million hectares of cropland across Gansu Province in northeastern China, largely potatoes, corn, wheat and peas. Temperature in Beijing hovers around 37^oC, with neighboring Hebei Province warned of the hottest summer since 1955.

Rainstorm, in contrast, continued to wreak havoc in the central and southern provinces. 22 central and southern provinces are on flood alarms, with 95 deaths and 21 missing, according to the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters said Wednesday.

The annual Red Cross report showed a rise in weather-related disasters worldwide over the last decade – from around 200 a year in the 1990s to around 350, and warned that extreme-weather events would become more frequent and more severe in the coming years.

We need to prepare ourselves to mitigate climate changes before it is too late. We need not fear of our preparation efforts going to drains to prove the climate change skeptics are right. In the course of mitigation preparation, many benefits would have been derived: the economy and job boosted from new green investments, health and quality of life improved with less pollution; resources saved from wastage and destructions; chances of species extinction reduced; financial gains and carbon taxes can be ploughed back for community welfare.

In reverse, a rising temperature causing global warming once established, will be almost near impossible to dismantle!
As Sir Nicholas Stern, Chief economist of the World Bank put it:
" The costs of strong and urgent action on climate change will be less than the costs of inaction and the impacts of climate change under business as usual (BAU)"

References and related news:

Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis - IPCC AR4
97% of Climatologists Say Global Warming is Occurring and Caused by Humans (Jan 22.2009)
Fires to Follow Floods as Wild Weather Hits Australia: Feb 06 2009 AFP
A Winter Sorm Brought Rare Snow Across Parts of the Middle East : Ncdc.noaa.gov
Australia's Forest Fire Toll Climbs - 173 Dead (3rd Roundup) Feb 09, 2009
Australian Bushfires Pump Out Millions of Tonnes of Carbon Feb 13, 2009
Forest Fire Carbon Footprint Really Rig, Researcher Says (Extra) Feb 12, 2009
Why Global Warming May Be Fueling Australia's Fires Feb 10, 2009

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Australia Gripped by Flooding in the North and a Heatwave in the South (BBC News Feb 07 2009)

Australia Gripped by Flooding in the North and a Heatwave in the South
(BBC News Feb 07 2009)