Extremes of Climate

Many scientists have warned that environmental changes are likely to be speeding up, climate extremes and disasters will come faster than expected. The hottest, coldest, wettest, driest, deadliest and unprecedented records of climate extremes till 2010 may easily be broken in 2011!

Extremes of climate have happened more frequently and over a greater part of the world over recent years, especially pronounced in 2009 and 2010. The bushfires and a record number of high-temperature days in the US; the unprecedented record heatwave and wildfires in the Russian Federation; the calving of a large iceberg from the calving from the Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland ice sheet; the concurrent incidences of drought and flood in China, Australia, are concrete manifestations of climate extremes.

Early 2010 saw more frequent climate extreme occurrences. Whilst unusually intense snowstorms slammed the Republic of Korea, India, west Europe and the US; floods ravaged across Australia, Brazil, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Kenya. A once-in-a-century drought in China has brought water scarcity plights to 20 million people. Agriculture products have been severely affected with output reduced by 50%. Economic loss is estimated at USD2.8 billion.
(A rare drought in Yunnan of China in early 2010)

The annual Red Cross report showed a rise in weather-related disasters worldwide over the last decade:

- from around 200 a year in the 1990s to around 350 at present. The report warned that extreme-weather events would become more frequent and more severe in the coming years.

After being exposed to the mercy of the century's worst drought came the rainy season in many of the same areas. Strong rainstorms caused the collapse of reservoirs, overflowing of rivers, landslides, power failures and damage of highways. The Xinhua Press reported that, as at June the floods in China in year 2010 have affected 68.7 million people in 22 regions with death toll of 379 and 141 missing. 4.36 million hectares of farmland had been inundated, causing direct economic losses of USD 12 billion.

The occurrence of all these events at almost the same time raises questions about their possible linkages to the predicted increase in intensity and frequency of extreme events, for example, as stipulated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC published in 2007.

Projections made in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC on
Change in extreme events since 1950:

An increase in the number of heat waves and warm days/nights and a decrease in the number of cold days/nights.

Widespread drying over much of Northern Hemisphere land areas. This is associated with initial precipitation decrease related to ENSO, land and sea surface warming

An increase in the number of heavy snow and heavy rain leading to snow disaster and flooding respectively, but not everywhere.

An increase in the maximum and minimum temperatures.

Less number of frost days associated with the average warming in most mid-latitude regions.

A substantial increase in intensity and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes. Changes are masked by large natural variability. The El Nino Southern Oscillation greatly affects the location and activity of tropical storms around the world. Activity is strongly correlated with higher tropical sea surface temperatures.

75% increase in the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes since 1970 with decrease in the total number of cyclones and total number of cyclone days

An above-normal increase of hurricanes in the North Atlantic with 2005 as the record breaking year.

		Hurricanes and Cyclones In 1933, 21 Atlantic tropical storms prevailed, record only to be exceeded in 2005 with an all time high of 28 storms. Hurricane Katrina, one of the deadliest hurricanes in the history of US, hit the Gulf of Mexico Coast and New Orleans with devastating effect. More then 1,800 people lost there lives, and more then $81 billion dollars in damages occurred...... From late July to mid-September 2008, 6 consecutive severe storms and hurricanes have battered the United States

		Flood Devastation Bangladesh has been plagued by floods throughout history. Major flooding recorded in recent years occurred in: 1987, 1988, and 1998, 2004; the most devastating one occurred in November 2007. Causes of these daunting floods. A man climbed a ladder to reach a drainage sluice station in South China's Guangdong Province June 10, 2007. It is the worst flood to threaten 15 towns of the county in 50 years. [Chinadaily news 2007]

		Snow Wreckage A total of 18.6 million hectares of forests, about one-tenth of China's forest resources, have been damaged by the unprecedented snow wreckage in at least five decades, with forests, bamboo and seedlings in some parts of the country seriously destroyed. (Photo: Snowy weather damages 18.6-mln-hectare forest )

		Drought and Heat Waves ....has shown that human-induced global warming was a key factor in the severity of the 2002 drought..... Indonesia Forest Fires with underground peat fires: Consequential haze covered the neighboring countries of Singapore, Malaysia, Sumatra, Sabah and Sarawak, creating health hazards for months. Malaysia declared a "haze emergency"..., and 5 fire engines were sent to neighboring Indonesia to tackle the fires......more

Moscow Suffers Hottest Day Ever
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev attributed it to Climate Change

Russia suffered the worst drought and heat wave in more than a century, with temperatures reaching a searing record of 39^oC. More than 300,000 acres have burned, and an estimated 1/5 of the country's wheat crop died due to lack of rain. The month-long drought has caused 22000 fire islands in central Russia. Pollution levels in parts of the city exceeded 10 times the normal safety limits. Death toll rose to.....
"...what is happening now in our central regions is evidence of this global climate change... " Russia announced to ban all grain exports for the rest of 2010 year

Australia Gripped by Flooding in the North and a Heatwave in the South
(BBC News Feb 07 2009)

Eastern Australia is facing two extreme weather conditions, with intense heat threatening further fires in the south, and heavy rain causing floodwaters to rise in the north. Both the high temperatures and the downpours are a common feature of Australian summers, but scientists from The Bureau of Meteorology have stated that climate change could be enhancing the extreme weather conditions. In Melbourne, the temperature on Saturday is forecast to reach 44^oC (111F), 18^o above average for the time of year. This heat, combined with dry winds from the inland is leading to some of the worst wildfire conditions in 25 years.

China Grappling with Extreme Summer Weather: Chinadaily/2009-07/03

Some parts of China have had too much rain, and others too little:
Global warming is partly to blame for weather extremes in China in 2009, causing more than 700 deaths from flooding and leaving millions of others without water. Such extremes are likely to get more intense and more frequent in the future, according to head of the China Meteorological Administration's Department of Forecasting Services and Disaster Mitigation.

In the southern provinces of Hunan and Jiangxi, about 2 million people are experiencing drought and heat waves, with temperatures reaching 40^oC, which have also strained power grids. Some cities reported the highest temperature in 50 years. The drought is threatening 1.05 million hectares of cropland across Gansu Province in northeastern China, largely potatoes, corn, wheat and peas. Temperature in Beijing hovers around 37^oC, with neighboring Hebei Province warned of the hottest summer since 1955.

Rainstorm, in contrast, continued to wreak havoc in the central and southern provinces. 22 central and southern provinces are on flood alarms, with 95 deaths and 21 missing, according to the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

There are strong scientific implications that global warming due to increased greenhouse gas emissions has been associated with the more frequent occurrence of extreme climate events; and that humankind is the cause of global warming.

Further aggravation of global warming will lead to a more frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climatic events, thus posing great threat to the sustainable socio-economic development of the world. The world's annual economic loss due to these disasters also soared from USD 4 billion in the 1960s to USD 29 billion today. (IPCC AR42007)

The increase in the frequency and intensity of extremes of climate will reduce crop and farm animal output, escalate food prices and increasing the number of climate refugees. This intermittent food crisis has, in several occasions, aggravated poverty, caused regional uprisings which may ultimately caused global instability.

References and related news:

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: NOAA
Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis - IPCC AR4
97% of Climatologists Say Global Warming is Occurring and Caused by Humans (Jan 22.2009)
Fires to Follow Floods as Wild Weather Hits Australia: Feb 06 2009 AFP
A Winter Sorm Brought Rare Snow Across Parts of the Middle East : Ncdc.noaa.gov
Australia's Forest Fire Toll Climbs - 173 Dead (3rd Roundup) Feb 09, 2009
Australian Bushfires Pump Out Millions of Tonnes of Carbon Feb 13, 2009
Forest Fire Carbon Footprint Really Rig, Researcher Says (Extra) Feb 12, 2009
Why Global Warming May Be Fueling Australia's Fires Feb 10, 2009
Yunnan Runs Short of Grains after Long Droyght :chinadaily/2010-05/19

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Moscow Suffers Hottest Day Ever Russian President Dmitry Medvedev attributed it to Climate Change

Australia Gripped by Flooding in the North and a Heatwave in the South (BBC News Feb 07 2009)

Moscow Suffers Hottest Day Ever
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev attributed it to Climate Change

Australia Gripped by Flooding in the North and a Heatwave in the South
(BBC News Feb 07 2009)